The Pocket Doctor Revolution: A Fermi Perspective

Imagine a device, perhaps a sleek clip-on, a smart patch, a pair of glasses, or an advanced smartphone, that continuously measures vitals, offers round-the-clock availability, and provides empathetic guidance.

What would happen if every person on earth had access to such technology? Let's take a Fermi problem-inspired approach to estimate some far-reaching consequences.

Impact on Medical Professionals and Care Organizations

Medical professionals will transition from primary caregivers to consultants, focusing on complex cases that require human expertise. AI-driven care and continuous health monitoring will provide doctors with valuable insights into patient health trends, leading to more effective diagnoses and treatments. This shift will reduce wait times and alleviate burdens on healthcare systems.

Healthcare organizations will move from reactive care to proactive prevention, lowering costs and enhancing overall well-being. Hospitals will reduce patient loads and streamline care, with virtual consultations becoming more common, increasing efficiency.

Fermi estimated annual net impact: 141,11 million EUR per 100 000 people

Impact on Citizens' Health

Continuous health monitoring and personalized coaching will significantly improve public health. Real-time feedback and tailored advice will help prevent illnesses, manage chronic conditions more effectively, and promote healthier lifestyles. This proactive approach will reduce the prevalence of lifestyle-related diseases, allowing for early detection and timely intervention in chronic diseases like diabetes, hypertension, and heart disease. Ultimately, these improvements could increase the average lifespan and enhance overall well-being.

Fermi estimated annual net impact: 982,66 million EUR (US population)

Impact on Insurance

Insurance rates will likely be influenced by the level of health monitoring and coaching chosen ('relaxed' to 'very healthy'), with higher engagement indicating a lower risk profile. This tiered system will personalize premiums, rewarding proactive health management and healthier behaviors. Such a dynamic could lead to more accurate premiums, reduced costs, and healthier populations, ultimately lowering the overall risk pool for insurers.

Fermi estimated annual net impact: 1,6 billion EUR per 1 million people

Impact on GDP

The introduction of a pocket doctor will likely stimulate economic growth through healthier populations, resulting in fewer sick days and higher productivity, thereby boosting GDP. The tech industry supporting these health devices will expand, creating jobs and fostering innovation. Preventive care will reduce the strain on healthcare systems, allowing resources to be reallocated to other economic sectors.

Fermi estimated annual net impact: 2,3 billion EUR per 1 million people

Open questions

1. Do you control the coaching level ('relaxed' or 'very healthy'), or does your insurer? And what if you don't comply?
2. How will this impact city design?
3. What effect will access to anonymous data from the entire population have on the pharma sector and clinical R&D?

Investment insight

Investing in stocks related to sporting goods and health technology appears promising. As health awareness and activity levels rise, the demand for fitness equipment and apparel, health tracking devices, and wellness apps is expected to surge, making sporting goods companies a safe investment bet.

Fermi estimate: extra increase of 57,4 billion EUR on top of total sports good market by 2030 (global), total CAGR = 5,34%

Outtro

What do you think? Share your thoughts on how this technology could impact our daily lives and society as a whole!

What would happen if every person on earth had access to a doctor in their pocket? A Fermi problem-inspired approach to estimate some far-reaching consequences.